Noynoy Aquino, Liberal Party local bets lead in Butuan City – FSUU April 2010 survey

Even in a place where it is considered a bailiwick of administration bet Gilbert Teodoro Jr,  Liberal Party bet Benigno Aquino Jr., leads in a pre election survey of the Father Saturnino Urios University in Butuan City.  Butuan City has been ruled by two decades by the Plaza clan, who are loyal to the administration of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

In the latest survey conducted by the University’s survey and research group, Noynoy Aquino is leading with 36.6%. He is followed by administration bet Gibo Teodoro Jr. at 20.2%, followed by Nacionalista Party bet Manny Villar at 15.4%. No numbers for the rest of the candidates were published.

In the Vice Presidential race, Aquino’s runningmate, Mar Roxas leads with  52% followed by NP bet Loren Legarda at 12.9% and then PMP’s Jejomar Binay at 10.4 %.

The same survey showed that Liberal Party bets in Butuan are surprisingly in neck to neck battle with the well entrenched ruling party in the city. Except for the Congressional race, LP Butuan bets are topping their rivals by a slim margin.

In the congressional race, Lakas Rep. Joboy Aquino leads with 65.2% over his Liberal Party counterpart, Atty. Jijil Jimenez with 18.2%.

In the Mayoralty race, Liberal Party’s Ferdinand Amante leads by 40.7% over Lakas’ bet Daisy Plaza with 39.7%.   Amante’s numbers were boosted by votes from rural areas and from the youth sector. According to the survey, Amante’s surge was due to undecided voters.

In the vice mayoralty race, Atty. Lawrence Fortun of the Liberal Party had a more comfortable lead with 41.2% against Lakas bet and incumbent Vice Mayor Dino Claudio Sanchez with 35.6%.

In the race for Council seat, incumbent councilor Erwin Dano (LP) leads with 12%, followed by  Marticion-Salise, (Lakas) 10.9%,  Randolph Plaza (Lakas) 8.1%, Raul Amoc (Lakas) 7.5%,  Ryan Culima (LP) 7.0%, Audie Bernabe (Lakas) 6.5%, Ramon Carampatana (Lakas) 5.3%, Angelo Calo (LP) 5.0%, Dodo Cembrano (LP) 3.2% and Totong Sabijon (Lakas) at 2.9%.

Here is the full article of the survey

FSUU Policy Center conducted a press briefing to release the Executive Summary of their latest election survey results. Butuanons outside Butuan have not actually read the full FSUU report. Instead, they have seen only selected excerpts and selective quotations from the Executive Summary from sources who may advancing their own agenda by making conclusions and citing portions of the election survey report that support their opinions.

In the interest of full disclosure, since anyway the Executive Summary has been released to local media in Butuan, the entire FSUU Executive Summary is posted here:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Now on its third phase of a four-series survey, Father Saturnino Urios University Policy Center (FSUUPC), an independent, non-partisan research and education organization, is ready to unveil new findings culled last April 17-20, 2010 from the 396 new set of respondents taken from 14 new set of urban and 30 new set of rural barangays from a total of 27 urban and 59 rural barangays of the city.

Like the two surveys conducted last February 17–24, 2010 and March 24-26, 2010, it employed the multi-stage sampling design to gather data from residents in 50% of the urban and rural barangays in the city.  The sampling of barangays considered the geographical distribution in each of the quadrant (Northeast, Northwest, Southeast, Southwest) where 50% of them were taken as the sampled barangays and from where the respondents came.   The respondents from each sampled barangay were purposively chosen to represent income and age classification: Youth from the Low, Middle, and High Income classes; Middle age respondents or those from the age bracket of 31-50 from the Low, Middle and High income classes; and respondents representing the age bracket of 51 and above from the Low, Middle and High income classes.

The same instrument was used to gather data like in the first and second surveys. Questions posed to the respondents revolved around pressing community issues identified by the respondents, their voting preferences for the May 2010 elections, and their awareness and concerns in the conduct of the automated election.

Unveiling new truth from the third: Findings and Analyses

The third survey results revealed that 99% of the respondents will cast their votes in the May 2010 election because they believed it is their right, obligation and privilege to vote while at the same time will give them the opportunity to choose good leaders and to be a part of the political exercise with the hope of changing the political system both the local and the national level.

With voters’ education given by the different sectors of the community like the academe, COMELEC, and some non-governmental organizations, as well as the start of the local campaigns and the extensive national campaigns, there exists a significant drop of the number of undecided voters across all elective positions from March survey to April survey.

The respondents contended that poverty, unemployment, road problems, flooding, political disunity, streetlights, garbage, drug addiction, and peace and order are the most important issues that the local government of Butuan should address. These community issues do not influence their choice for the national candidates but rather served as an important factor in the respondents’ choice for local candidates. For them, a national candidate who is unstained by corruption and with good family background deserves to win. In the local level, respondents preferred a candidate who is popular, approachable, and capable to lead and bring about good governance.

The previous survey gave us 37% of respondents who expect for money while 63% of them do not expect to receive money for their votes. Today, only about 34% divulged that they are expecting to receive money while there are 61% who are not expecting to receive. This affirms that the forthcoming election is a serious political exercise which cannot be bartered by a meager amount of money.  However, 5% of them cannot decide whether to receive money or not. Meanwhile, there are 62% of the respondents who knew of somebody in their community who expect to receive money.

Majority of the respondents (76%) now knew that this coming election shall be done using automated voting system with an increase of 10% from the previous survey.  About the same percentage of respondents already have the knowledge on how the automated voting system works. This indicates that Voters’ Education conducted by the different sectors through all forms of media proved to be working. However, the number of respondents who expressed apprehensions on how this coming election shall be conducted seemed to remain the same with that of the last surveys, decreasing only by 1% which is not significant. At the same time, the apprehensions expressed by them were still on power outages, failure of automation machines, electoral fraud and election related violence.

From both the urban and rural barangays, the top three preferred Presidential candidates are Aquino, Teodoro, and Villar with percentages distribution of 36.6, 20.7 and 15.4 respectively. The lead of Aquino over Teodoro is significant at 5% level of significance.  Senator Aquino is preferred by the respondents from across all age and economic sectors, and at the same time, the top gainer in the April survey with 7.9%. His rating of 36.6% is the highest since February. Teodoro, who gained 2.1% increase from the previous survey maintained in the second spot over Villar who marked a drop of 1.1%. Tested at 0.05 level of significance, the difference between and among these preferred presidentiables is significant.

Since the February survey hitherto, Aquino leads the race with 31.3%, 28.7%, 36.6%, respectively. Getting closer to him is Teodoro who gained the following percentages attribution of 12.4, 22.5, and 20.7, respectively.

It can also be noted that Estrada and Villanueva constantly gained increase in ratings while Villar constantly decreased after the February survey until April, although such increase and decrease are not significant. To say, the percentage loss of Villar’s vote has become Aquino’s percentage gains as well as the decrease of the undecided voters.

Senator Roxas consistently dominates in the Vice Presidential race with 52%.Reaping the second spot is Legarda with 12.9% and the third spot goes to Binay with 10.4 %.  The top gainer for the vice presidential seat, for this third survey, is Roxas posting a mark of 11.9% with Manzano posting the highest drop of 5.8%.  The difference between Roxas and Legarda is significant while Legarda over Binay and Binay over Manzano is not significant.  This indicates that Legarda, Binay, and Manzano are statistically tied.  The increase of Roxas from March to April is significant while that of Legarda and Binay are not. Meanwhile, the decrease of Manzano from March to April is significant.

Congressman Aquino continues to garner the highest votes over Jimenez but the gap between them lessens by 5.4 % from March to April.   Aquino posted 65.2% and Jimenez got 18.2% for the April survey.  The lead of Aquino over Jimenez is statistically significant at .05 level of significance. The decreased rating of Aquino from March to April at 3.5% is not significant while the increase of Jimenez is significant. And the difference between them is significant.

In the three surveys, the way of Aquino leading again to the House of Representative has been consistently fueled with the following vote percentages of 57.1, 68.7, and 64.6, respectively. However, such results are stagnating. Jimenez, on the other hand, gathered the following marks of 7.6%, 9.3%, and 18.2%, respectively, showing a positive increase since the first survey. Such increase is obtained from the undecided voters.

For the mayoralty position, Amante is on the lead with 40.7% over Plaza at 39.7 % but the lead of Amante over Plaza is not significant. As of the third survey, Amante and Plaza are statistically tied.  Amante posted a higher percentage than Plaza in the rural areas. The strength of Amante lies in the youth sector across all income brackets. Observably, the rise of Amante is taken from the undecided voters.

On the other hand, Fortun overtakes the lead of Sanchez by 6.1%.  The 16.6% increase rating of Fortun from March to April resulted to 41.7% which is significant at 0.05 level of significance. He garnered high votes from the urban barangays and his strength is found across all age brackets.

Comparing the three surveys, Sanchez got the following percentages distribution of 34.6, 47.3, and 35.6, respectively, while Fortun had percentages attribution of 27.8, 25.1, and 41.2 respectively. The high increase of Fortun’s rating can be attributed to the decrease of the votes of Sanchez and from the undecided voters. Observably, he has constantly increased ratings across types of barangays.

The top 10 candidates for councilor position are the following with the percentages attributed for each:  Dano – 12.1%, Marticion-Salise – 10.9%, Plaza – 8.1%, Amoc – 7.5%, Culima – 7.0%, Bernabe – 6.5% Carampatana – 5.3%, Calo, A. – 5.0%, Cembrano – 3.2%, and Sabijon- 2.9%. Nine out of ten of the candidates for councilor who made it to the top ten in the two previous surveys remained to be the preferred councilors although some of the candidates changed ranks in the order of preference.

There is no statistical difference in the voting preference of the respondents, at the time of the survey for the mayoralty while there is significant difference for vice mayoralty positions. For the councilor positions, there is a significant difference among those who occupied the first five ranks.

Conclusions:

Pressing community issues identified by the respondents are considered as factors in the respondents’ preference for candidates in the local positions but not for the national elected positions.  The respondents still preferred a national candidate unstained by corruption and with good family background. In the local level, respondents’ preference pertains to the candidate’s popularity, approachability, and the capability to lead and bring about good governance.

Almost all of the respondents expressed their intention to vote this May 2010 election and there are more respondents who expressed knowledge of the automated election.   However, the general apprehensions for the coming election are still primarily on power outages, failure of automation machines, electoral fraud and election related violence.

Voters across age and income brackets tend to vote for Senator Aquino for the Presidential post. Teodoro takes the second spot. Comparing the three surveys, Estrada and Villanueva constantly gained increase in ratings while Villar constantly decreased after the February survey until April, although such increase and decrease are not significant. To say, the percentage loss of Villar’s vote has become Aquino’s percentage gains as well as the decrease of the undecided voters.

For the Vice President position, Senator Roxas continues to lead.  Voter preference for Roxas is essentially the same across income bracket and age groups.

The lead of Congressman Aquino is significantly higher over that of Jimenez.  Congressman Aquino is preferred by respondents across age and income classification. The increase in the ratings of Jimenez from the second survey to the third survey is taken from the undecided voters.

Amante’s lead over Plaza for the mayoralty position is not significant.  The two are statistically tied.  The strength of Amante lies in the youth sector across all income brackets. He posted a higher rate than Plaza in the rural areas. The increase of Amante’s votes is attributed from the undecided voters.

Fortun ranks first over Sanchez in the vice mayoralty position. The strength of Fortun is found across all age brackets. He garnered high votes from the urban barangays. In the three surveys, Fortun’s rise is obtained from the votes of Sanchez and from the undecided voters. The increase is significant across types of barangays.

The top 10 candidates for councilor are Dano, Marticion-Salise, Plaza, Amoc, Culima, Bernabe, Carampatana, Calo, A., Cembrano, and Sabijon.

In general, there is an observed significant fluctuation in the voting preferences of the respondents.  The decrease in the number of those who are undecided became the gains of the leading candidates.

As of this survey, the data show that some of the leading candidates are not yet assured of the position.  With a significant percentage of undecided voters even as of this time of the survey, the rankings of the candidates may still sway.   However, the factors that may directly influence the final turn out of votes on the May 2010 elections and the extent at which they operate are not covered in this survey.